Tuesday, May 7, 2013

ANOTHER look at the jobs numbers

April Unemployment Fell To 7.5%, With 165,000 Jobs Created… and the world was thrilled, which is odd. The labor force grew by 200,000 people, and the economy created 165,000 jobs. That doesn't add up to good news in our books.

Never mind that this “wonderful” number is less than the number of jobs estimated out of thin air to have been created by the business birth/death adjustment model (193,000), which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses to guess how many small business jobs were created. The fact is, the jobs picture remains negative. Based on the latest real numbers, we’re down 28,000 (165,000 created – 193,000 guesstimated). At the same time, 278,000 new people said they were working part-time because they can’t find full-time work. All of this together dovetails with what we see elsewhere – wages are flat because employers have a lot of choices. It’s been the same situation for five years.

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