Sunday, November 10, 2013

The Significance of Virginia

The governor’s election earlier this week in Virginia speaks to something I’ve been talking about recently … we’ll see 20 more years of Democrats in the White House because of the changing demographics of America.

If you weren’t following the Virginia election, Terry McAuliffe won. He’s a Democrat and a “friend of Hillary.” His victory will give Hillary a key state in the 2016 presidential election. McAuliffe won because of the urban vote, the welfare vote and the minority vote. That demographic is increasingly America … more Americans live in urban than rural settings and urban centers are increasingly “blue” voters. America is also increasingly welfare oriented, which also tends to be more “blue.” And America is increasingly a place where "minority" is moving toward majority status, which plays to the Democrats advantage too.

But, what also makes Virginia so interesting is its transformation. Just a few years ago, it was a “red” state … then it became a mixed state … and now it is trending “blue.”  Virginia is still a bit schizophrenic in that McAuliffe did not win a majority of the votes, just a plurality of the votes, narrowly beating a Tea Party contender. It represents the same transition America is struggling through at the moment. And it speaks to where America is headed – the urban welfare majority vs. the largely non-urban right wing faction of the Republicans.

How does this play out, you may wonder. My guess is that the urban majority will win this fight because of their sheer numbers. They will control the White House and, on occasion, control both chambers of Congress. But, the right-wing faction will most likely command large enough numbers in Congress to be a countering force. The right wingers will be a stone wall pushing to stop the lust for welfare expansion … while the urban faction will push for policies that the right wingers will fight tooth and nail. We, in turn, end up with increasingly rancorous politics in America. We face the increasing likelihood of more government shutdowns and other tactics in which the minority party tries to block the majority in power because it’s the only power the minority has. Virginia says a lot about our future as a country.

written by Jeff Opdyke 

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